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--> Contact Us Sitemap Access 日本語 ENGLISH About RIEB Message Outline History Former Directors Organization Staff Accounts Internatinal Exchange Faculty Global Economy Unit Corporate Competitiveness Unit Corporate Information Unit Global Finance Unit Integrated Center for Corporate Archives Center for the Promotion of Regional Co-Creation Research Office of Promoting Research Collaboration Visiting and Adjunct Researcher Faculty Awards (in Japanese) Research Fellow Emeritus Professor Research Research Projects Publications Integrates Center for Corporate Archives Early Moden DataBase Seminars at RIEB Seminar Schedule All Seminars RIEB & Kanematsu Seminars Latin America Seminars Monetary Economics Seminar of Kobe University (in Japanese) Kanebo Seminar of Kobe University (in Japanese) Past Seminars Education & Society Symposia Social Contribution & Education Kanematsu Prize Sections Integrated Center for Corporate Archives Center for the Promotion of Regional Co-Creation Research United Nations Depository Library RIEB Library Computer Laboratory Local Page--> HOME Research Publications Discussion Paper Series（English） RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2022-32 RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2022-32 RIEB Discussion Paper Series No.2022-32 Title Cyclical Activity and Inflation under Secular Stagnation: Empirical Evidence Using Data on Japan's Lost Decades Abstract This paper disputes the suspicions about the existence and stability of the trade-off between nominal inflation and the real economy when missing deflation and reinflation under secular stagnation by providing empirical evidence of the stability of this short-run trade-off. To this end, we construct a simple measure of demand-pull pressures, namely the cyclical activity index, using time-series data for a period that includes Japan's secular stagnation. We then quantitatively examine the relationship between inflation and the measured cyclical activity. The empirical results support that the cyclical activity index has a stable and economically meaningful relationship with short-term inflation. Keywords Inflation; Cyclical activity; Phillips curve; Economic slack; Secular stagnation; Japan JEL Classification E31, E32 Inquiries Masahiko SHIBAMOTO Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration(RIEB) Center for Computational Social Science (CCSS) Kobe University Rokkodai-cho, Nada-ku, Kobe 657-8501 Japan Phone: +81-78-803-7036 FAX: +81-78-803-7059 Site Top About RIEB Faculty Research Seminars at RIEB Education & Society Sections Site Policy Sitemap Access Contact Information © Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University. All Rights Reserved. Contact Us Site Policy (in Japanese) Sitemap Access 日本語 ENGLISH